Mixed Signals Emerge on Ukraine        05/02 06:19

   The discussions have taken place in an ornate Kremlin hall, on the polished 
marble of St. Peter's Basilica and in a famously contentious session in the 
Oval Office of the White House.

   TALLINN, Estonia (AP) -- The discussions have taken place in an ornate 
Kremlin hall, on the polished marble of St. Peter's Basilica and in a famously 
contentious session in the Oval Office of the White House.

   What's emerged so far from the Washington-led effort to end the war in 
Ukraine suggests a deal that seems likely to be favorable to Russia: President 
Donald Trump has sharply rebuked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, 
echoed Kremlin talking points, and indicated Kyiv would have to surrender 
territory and forego NATO membership. What's more, he has engaged in a 
rapprochement with Moscow that was unthinkable months ago.

   More recently, Trump has offered mixed signals -- social media posts that 
perhaps Russian President Vladimir Putin is stringing him along -- and a deal 
has yet to materialize.

   While the optics so far have been in the Kremlin's favor, no proposals that 
were put forth have been cemented.

   And on Wednesday, Washington and Kyiv signed an agreement granting American 
access to Ukraine's vast mineral resources that could enable continued military 
aid to the country under ongoing attacks from Russia.

   Zelenskyy said Thursday the deal was the first result of his "truly 
historic" meeting with Trump at the Vatican before the funeral of Pope Francis.

   Dialogue and aligned vision

   One gain for the Kremlin is that Washington is talking again to Moscow after 
years of extremely strained ties following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine -- and 
not just about the war, said Nikolay Petrov, senior research fellow with the 
New Eurasian Strategies Centre think tank.

   Russian officials and state media from the very start of discussions with 
Trump's officials sought to underscore that Ukraine was only one item on the 
vast agenda of the "two superpowers." Trump and Putin talked in March about 
Ukraine but also the Middle East, stopping the proliferation of strategic 
weapons and even organizing hockey games between the countries.

   Russia's main state TV channel reported that the meeting between Putin and 
Trump envoy Steve-Witkoff showed that Moscow and Washington were building "a 
new structure of the world" together.

   In this sense, "Putin already got a part of what he sought" -- the optics of 
Russia as a country that is on par with the U.S., Petrov said.

   Trump has said Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula Moscow illegally annexed in 
2014, "will stay with Russia," and outlines of a peace proposal his team 
reportedly presented to Kyiv last month apparently included allowing Russia to 
keep control of other occupied Ukrainian territories. Trump, who had a 
contentious meeting with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office on Feb. 28, lashed out at 
him for publicly rejecting the idea of ceding land, and also said that Kyiv was 
unlikely to ever join NATO.

   All of these have long been Moscow's talking points, and Trump's use of them 
suggested his administration's vision was aligned with the Kremlin's.

   Trump also seemingly puts more pressure on Kyiv than Moscow in trying to 
reach a peace deal and appears eager to return to a more normal relationship 
with Russia and its "big business opportunities," said Sam Greene of King's 
College London.

   "Is there any part of this that doesn't look like a win for Russia? No," 
Greene adds.

   So far, it's only talk

   But so far, all of this has remained nothing but rhetoric, with terms of a 
possible settlement still very much "in the air," says Sergey Radchenko, a 
historian and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International 
Studies.

   Moreover, there are still demands by both Russia and Ukraine that would be 
hard to reconcile in any kind of peace settlement.

   Ukraine refuses to cede any land and wants robust security guarantees 
against future aggression, possibly involving a contingent of peacekeepers --- 
something a handful of European nations have been discussing and Russia 
publicly rejects as a nonstarter.

   Russia, in turn, demands that it holds onto the territory it has seized as 
well as no NATO membership for Ukraine. It also wants Kyiv to "demilitarize," 
or significantly reduce its armed force.

   Radchenko sees the latter as a major sticking point in peace talks, because 
a strong, viable army is important for Ukraine to defend itself.

   "If there are restrictions on the kinds of weapons Ukraine can receive (from 
the West) or the size of the army, then it will be very difficult to get them 
to accept this sort of agreement," he said.

   Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov seemingly raised the stakes further 
this week by saying that international recognition of regions annexed from 
Ukraine by Russia was "imperative" for a peace deal.

   Achieving that remains unclear, given that dozens of countries have decried 
the annexations as violating international law.

   What if the US walks away?

   Some analysts believe it is in Putin's interest to prolong the war and keep 
making gains on the battlefield.

   Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have 
threatened to wash their hands of the peace effort if there is no progress soon.

   Putin, in an apparent gesture of willingness to keep talking, announced this 
week a 72-hour ceasefire starting May 8 for Russia's Victory Day holiday that 
marks the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.

   Zelenskyy dismissed the gesture as a further attempt by Putin at 
"manipulation" to string along the U.S., saying a ceasefire should begin 
immediately and last longer.

   Greene noted that the Russian ruble and markets have been doing better 
recently over expectations of a peace deal and U.S. businesses and investors 
coming back, "and there may be a price to be paid" for pulling out the rug from 
under that.

   The larger question is what happens on the battlefield if the Trump 
administration withdraws from the peace effort.

   "When the Trump administration says they'll walk away, we don't know what 
that means. Does that mean they walk away from negotiations and keep supporting 
Ukraine?" Greene said.

   Greene says that Ukraine probably doesn't feel confident that the U.S. 
stepping back from the process means that Washington will keep supporting Kyiv, 
adding that Russia may not be sure of the Trump administration ending aid, 
either.

   "I think it's very difficult for the Kremlin to calculate the risks of 
dragging this out," he said.

   And U.S. Treasury Secretary Sctott Bessent said the mineral deal "signals 
clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process 
centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term."

   A lot depends on whether Europe can step up and fill any gaps in U.S. aid.

   If Trump walks away from the peace effort and still pursues normalizing 
relations with Russia, lifting sanctions, "this will amount to a major 
breakthrough" for Putin, but it's not a given, Radchenko says.

   That would be an uphill battle for Trump as "there's a lot of congressional 
sanctions that are predicated on the war in Ukraine," Greene notes.